by Rachel Musiker | RedFin.Com
Troy Warren for CNT #RealEstate
The five-month streak of record-setting home prices has ended; supply is inching up.
At $362,750, the median home sale price did not set a new record high for the first time since early March. Instead it was flat (-0.2%) from the four-week period ending July 25 and up 18% from a year earlier. Trends for home prices, sales and new listings are starting to resemble the patterns we typically expect for this time of year, which is news after a year of unpredictable and insatiable demand for homes. Measures of competition and home-selling speed are plateauing–at 54% of homes selling above list price and about half under contract within two weeks–as pending sales slide and new listings climb. Mortgage rates are back below 2.8%, a level that we haven’t seen since the winter. If these trends continue, homebuying conditions will likely improve (relative to earlier in the summer), with more options and less competition for homebuyers.
“Although homes are much pricier than they were before the pandemic, homebuyers now have the benefit of very low mortgage rates and a little less competition than they faced earlier in the summer,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “This week a young first-time buyer with an FHA loan had her offer accepted on a home near Myrtle Beach, SC, after losing out in five bidding wars. I am hopeful that more opportunities like this will arise in the coming weeks if things continue to stabilize.”
Unless otherwise noted, the data in this report covers the four-week period ending August 1. Redfin’s housing market data goes back through 2012. The data source is a Redfin analysis of MLS data.
Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas:
Data based on homes listed and/or sold during the period:
- The median home-sale price increased 18% year over year to $362,750, but decreased 0.2% from the four-week period ending July 25. This ends a five-month streak of record-setting home prices.
- Asking prices of newly listed homes were up 12% from the same time a year ago to a median of $358,475, but down 1% from their all-time high posted during the four weeks ending June 27.
- Pending home sales were up 3%, the smallest year-over-year increase since the four-week period ending June 28, 2020. They were down 3% from the four weeks ending July 25 and down 12% from their 2021 peak hit during the four-week period ending May 30.
- New listings of homes for sale were down slightly by 0.2% from a year earlier, the first decrease since March. The number of homes being listed ticked up 1.9% compared to the four weeks ending July 25, similar to the trend seen the last two years during this time.
- Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 26% from the same period in 2020—the smallest decline since the four-week period ending December 27, 2020. Active listings were up 13% from their 2021 low hit during the four-week period ending March 7.
- 49.7% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, well above the 44% rate during the same period a year ago. The rate has been plateauing since the four weeks ending July 11 but this was the first time it fell below 50% since the four-week period ending February 7.
- 36% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within one week of hitting the market, up from 31.6% during the same period a year earlier. This rate has also been plateauing since the four weeks ending July 11.
- Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 16 days–that’s 20 days faster than a year ago and flat from the four weeks ending July 25.
- 54% of homes sold above list price, up from 30% a year earlier. This measure is plateauing, clocking in at 54-55% since the four-week period ending June 27.
- At 4.7%, the share of homes for sale with price drops hovered just below 2019 levels (4.9%), surpassing last year’s rate of 3.7%.
- The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, fell to 102.1%–still only slightly below the 102.3% peak set in the four weeks ending July 4. In other words, the average home sold for 2.1% above its asking price. This measure was 3.1 percentage points higher than a year earlier.
Other leading indicators of homebuying activity:
- Mortgage purchase applications during the week ending July 30 fell 1.7% week over week (seasonally adjusted) to their lowest level since May 2020. For the week ending August 5, 30-year mortgage rates fell to 2.77%, their lowest rate since mid-February.
- From January 1 to August 3, home tours were up 14%, compared to a 39% increase over the same period last year, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.
- The seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for home tours and other services from Redfin agents—was up 8% month over month.
In Other NEWS